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Rapitenca vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Rapitenca
Rapitenca
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
9/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca41%
×Draw26%
Cerdanyola del Vallès32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapitenca
1.39
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.20

Rapitenca creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 77 away

creates per match

Rapitenca
1.34
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

Rapitenca
1.31
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw
68%
Rapitenca or Cerdanyola del Vallès
74%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
59%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+
19%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals
75%
Rapitenca 2+ goals
40%
Rapitenca 3+ goals
16%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
70%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
34%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)
56%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rapitenca scores more
41%
level
26%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
32%

Rapitenca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 4–2 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Rapitenca beat Cerdanyola del Vallès 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.