Cerdanyola del Vallès 3–2 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Cerdanyola del Vallès

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Rapitenca

1/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès45%

×Draw25%

Rapitenca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerdanyola del VallèsExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.54

Rapitenca

1.19

Cerdanyola del Vallès creates 29% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 32 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

1.43

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.31

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.43

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerdanyola del Vallès ↓

Rapitenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw

71%

Cerdanyola del Vallès or Rapitenca

75%

Draw or Rapitenca

55%

Winning margin

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

23%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

79%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

45%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

20%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

70%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

33%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

61%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.31 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

45%

level

25%

Rapitenca scores more

29%

Cerdanyola del Vallès at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cerdanyola del Vallès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff