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Rapitenca vs Badalona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Rapitenca
Rapitenca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Badalona II
Badalona II
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca39%
×Draw27%
Badalona II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapitenca
1.31
Badalona II
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

Rapitenca
1.34
Badalona II
1.12

allows per match

Rapitenca
1.31
Badalona II
1.27

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par
Badalona II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Badalona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw
66%
Rapitenca or Badalona II
73%
Draw or Badalona II
61%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+
17%
Badalona II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals
73%
Rapitenca 2+ goals
38%
Rapitenca 3+ goals
14%
Badalona II 1+ goals
70%
Badalona II 2+ goals
34%
Badalona II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)
53%
Badalona II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Badalona II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Badalona II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Badalona II attack 1.12 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rapitenca scores more
39%
level
27%
Badalona II scores more
34%

Rapitenca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 2–1 Badalona II

Rapitenca beat Badalona II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.