Badalona II 0–0 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Badalona II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rapitenca

1/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 18Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Badalona II53%

×Draw25%

Rapitenca22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Badalona IIExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.97

Badalona II

1.64

Rapitenca

0.97

Badalona II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 32 away

1.49

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Badalona II

1.49

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Badalona II

1.00

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Rapitenca →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw

78%

Badalona II or Rapitenca

75%

Draw or Rapitenca

47%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+

28%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals

81%

Badalona II 2+ goals

49%

Badalona II 3+ goals

23%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

62%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

25%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)

70%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Badalona II scores more

53%

level

25%

Rapitenca scores more

22%

Badalona II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Marc Velasco← Bilal Charreh

68'

Peke← Cesc Martínez

72'

Marc Angles← Abel Cortina

72'

Zaid Saban← Daniel Peña

72'

I. Nemoto← W. Suzuki

75'

Stefi Bona← Z. Kore

84'

Adrià Prado← Arnau Roca

90+2'

Alex Samper← Eric Alarcón

Badalona

Rapitenca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Santi Álvarez

58'▲Marc Velasco←▼Bilal Charreh

72'▲Marc Angles←▼Abel Cortina

72'▲Zaid Saban←▼Daniel Peña

72'▲I. Nemoto←▼W. Suzuki

84'▲Adrià Prado←▼Arnau Roca

Badalona II substitutes

VelascoAnglesSabanNemotoPrado

Manager: Josep Aliau

68'▲Peke←▼Cesc Martínez

75'▲Stefi Bona←▼Z. Kore

90+2'▲Alex Samper←▼Eric Alarcón

Rapitenca substitutes

PekeBonaSamper

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 0–0 Rapitenca

Badalona II and Rapitenca drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.

Badalona II vs Rapitenca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 0–0 Rapitenca