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Rápido Bouzas vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
9/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Baltasar Pujales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rápido Bouzas60%
×Draw22%
Pontevedra II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rápido Bouzas
1.87
Pontevedra II
0.89

Rápido Bouzas creates 110% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

creates per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.33
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.07
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rápido Bouzas ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rápido Bouzas or draw
83%
Rápido Bouzas or Pontevedra II
78%
Draw or Pontevedra II
40%

Winning margin

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
35%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
85%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
56%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
29%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
59%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
22%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
78%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rápido Bouzas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.33 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.87

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rápido Bouzas scores more
60%
level
22%
Pontevedra II scores more
17%

Rápido Bouzas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Rápido Bouzas 1–1 Pontevedra II

Rápido Bouzas and Pontevedra II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Baltasar Pujales in Vigo.