Pontevedra II 0–3 Rápido Bouzas: Result & Stats

Pontevedra II

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Rápido Bouzas

2/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo Municipal A Seca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pontevedra II31%

×Draw28%

Rápido Bouzas41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pontevedra IIExpected goals in this matchRápido Bouzas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.27

Pontevedra II

1.05

Rápido Bouzas

1.27

Rápido Bouzas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 75 away

0.88

creates per match

1.12

1.41

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Pontevedra II

0.88

Rápido Bouzas

1.12

allows per match

Pontevedra II

1.41

Rápido Bouzas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra II ↓

Rápido Bouzas →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pontevedra II or draw

59%

Pontevedra II or Rápido Bouzas

72%

Draw or Rápido Bouzas

69%

Winning margin

Pontevedra II wins by 2+

12%

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Pontevedra II 1+ goals

65%

Pontevedra II 2+ goals

28%

Pontevedra II 3+ goals

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals

72%

Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals

36%

Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)

43%

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra II at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra II attack 0.88 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Pontevedra II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pontevedra II scores more

31%

level

28%

Rápido Bouzas scores more

41%

Rápido Bouzas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Pontevedra II 0–3 Rápido Bouzas

Rápido Bouzas beat Pontevedra II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal A Seca in Pontevedra.

Pontevedra II vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Pontevedra II 0–3 Rápido Bouzas