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Rápido Bouzas vs Compostela — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Compostela
Compostela
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Baltasar Pujales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rápido Bouzas32%
×Draw28%
Compostela39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rápido Bouzas
1.06
Compostela
1.21

Compostela creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 32 away

creates per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.33
Compostela
1.34

allows per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.07
Compostela
0.78

finishing

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par
Compostela+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rápido Bouzas ↓

Compostela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rápido Bouzas or draw
61%
Rápido Bouzas or Compostela
72%
Draw or Compostela
68%

Winning margin

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
12%
Compostela wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
65%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
29%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
9%
Compostela 1+ goals
70%
Compostela 2+ goals
34%
Compostela 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
45%
Compostela (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rápido Bouzas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Compostela away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.33 + Compostela defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Compostela attack 1.34 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rápido Bouzas scores more
32%
level
28%
Compostela scores more
39%

Compostela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rápido Bouzas 0 – 3 Compostela

Compostela beat Rápido Bouzas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Baltasar Pujales in Vigo.