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Compostela vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Compostela
Compostela
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Compostela56%
×Draw24%
Rápido Bouzas20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compostela
1.70
Rápido Bouzas
0.89

Compostela creates 91% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 75 away

creates per match

Compostela
2.16
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Compostela
0.66
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Compostela or draw
80%
Compostela or Rápido Bouzas
76%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
44%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+
31%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals
82%
Compostela 2+ goals
51%
Compostela 3+ goals
24%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
59%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
22%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)
74%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 32 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 2.16 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Compostela defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Compostela scores more
56%
level
24%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
20%

Compostela at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Compostela 4–1 Rápido Bouzas

Compostela beat Rápido Bouzas 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.