Rapide Oued ZEM 2–1 Olympique Safi: Result & Stats

Rapide Oued ZEM

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Olympique Safi

7/13/2021

Botola Pro · Round 27Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM40%

×Draw29%

Olympique Safi31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapide Oued ZEMExpected goals in this matchOlympique Safi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.98

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.16

Olympique Safi

0.98

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

1.03

creates per match

0.96

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.03

Olympique Safi

0.96

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.00

Olympique Safi

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Olympique Safi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw

69%

Rapide Oued ZEM or Olympique Safi

71%

Draw or Olympique Safi

60%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

17%

Olympique Safi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

69%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

32%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

11%

Olympique Safi 1+ goals

62%

Olympique Safi 2+ goals

26%

Olympique Safi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

56%

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.03 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

40%

level

29%

Olympique Safi scores more

31%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff