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Olympique Safi vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Cup 2020

Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
FT
0 – 1
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEMadvanced
1/2/2021CupCup · Round of 32Stade El Massira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Olympique Safi65%
×Draw23%
Rapide Oued ZEM12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Safi
1.67
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.54

Olympique Safi creates 209% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Olympique Safi
2.33
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.25

allows per match

Olympique Safi
0.83
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.00

finishing

Olympique Safi+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Safi ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Safi or draw
88%
Olympique Safi or Rapide Oued ZEM
77%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
35%

Winning margin

Olympique Safi wins by 2+
37%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Olympique Safi 1+ goals
81%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
50%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
23%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
42%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
10%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
85%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Safi at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Safi attack 2.33 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.25 + Olympique Safi defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Olympique Safi scores more
65%
level
23%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
12%

Olympique Safi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Olympique Safi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Olympique Safi 0–1 Rapide Oued ZEM

Rapide Oued ZEM beat Olympique Safi 1-0 in Cup on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stade El Massira in Safi.