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Rapide Oued ZEM vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
10/10/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 30Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM42%
×Draw29%
Ittihad Tanger29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.21
Ittihad Tanger
0.95

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.03
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.00
Ittihad Tanger
1.39

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw
71%
Rapide Oued ZEM or Ittihad Tanger
71%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
58%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
18%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
70%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
34%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
12%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
61%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
25%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
59%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.03 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
42%
level
29%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
29%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapide Oued ZEM vs Ittihad Tanger

Rapide Oued ZEM beat Ittihad Tanger 5-3 in Botola Pro on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Zem.