Rapide Oued ZEM 0–0 Ittifaq Marrakech

Rapide Oued ZEM

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ittifaq Marrakech

9/24/2023

Botola 2 · Round 3Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM46%

×Draw31%

Ittifaq Marrakech22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapide Oued ZEMExpected goals in this matchIttifaq Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.69

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.14

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.69

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 65% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

1.07

creates per match

0.57

0.82

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.07

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.57

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.82

Ittifaq Marrakech

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Ittifaq Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw

78%

Rapide Oued ZEM or Ittifaq Marrakech

69%

Draw or Ittifaq Marrakech

54%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

20%

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

68%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

32%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

11%

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals

50%

Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals

15%

Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

68%

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.82 · 44 matches

Ittifaq Marrakech away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.07 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.57 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

46%

level

31%

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more

22%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff