Ittifaq Marrakech 1–1 Rapide Oued ZEM

Ittifaq Marrakech

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rapide Oued ZEM

2/24/2024

Botola 2 · Round 18Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittifaq Marrakech37%

×Draw31%

Rapide Oued ZEM32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittifaq MarrakechExpected goals in this matchRapide Oued ZEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.94

Ittifaq Marrakech

1.05

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.94

Ittifaq Marrakech creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

0.97

creates per match

0.91

0.97

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.97

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.91

allows per match

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.97

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittifaq Marrakech ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ittifaq Marrakech or draw

68%

Ittifaq Marrakech or Rapide Oued ZEM

69%

Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM

63%

Winning margin

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+

15%

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals

65%

Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals

28%

Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals

9%

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

61%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

24%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)

54%

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittifaq Marrakech at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.97 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more

37%

level

31%

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

32%

Ittifaq Marrakech at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ittifaq Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff