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Rapid vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2026

Rapid
Rapid
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
1/29/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 23Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rapid46%
×Draw24%
Uta Arad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.69
Uta Arad
1.31

Rapid creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.70
Uta Arad
1.19

allows per match

Rapid
1.43
Uta Arad
1.69

finishing

Rapid+0.47scores more
Uta Arad-0.33scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
70%
Rapid or Uta Arad
76%
Draw or Uta Arad
54%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
24%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
82%
Rapid 2+ goals
50%
Rapid 3+ goals
24%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
73%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
38%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
61%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.43 · 6 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.70 + Uta Arad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Uta Arad attack 1.19 + Rapid defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rapid scores more
46%
level
24%
Uta Arad scores more
30%

Rapid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid vs Uta Arad

Rapid and Uta Arad drew 1-1 in Liga I on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.