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Rapid vs FC Politehnica Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Rapid
Rapid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
8/24/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 4Stadionul Regie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rapid48%
×Draw27%
FC Politehnica Timisoara25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.38
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.90

Rapid creates 53% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 70 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.52
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.83

allows per match

Rapid
0.97
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.23

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par
FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
75%
Rapid or FC Politehnica Timisoara
73%
Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara
52%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
23%
FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
75%
Rapid 2+ goals
40%
Rapid 3+ goals
16%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
59%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
23%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
66%
FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.52 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + Rapid defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rapid scores more
48%
level
27%
FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
25%

Rapid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Rapid 1–0 FC Politehnica Timisoara

Rapid beat FC Politehnica Timisoara 1-0 in Liga II on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Regie in Bucureşti.