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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Rapid — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rapid
Rapid
3/1/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 23Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara35%
×Draw28%
Rapid37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.16
Rapid
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 29 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
Rapid
1.38

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
Rapid
1.24

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
63%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Rapid
72%
Draw or Rapid
65%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
14%
Rapid wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
69%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
32%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
11%
Rapid 1+ goals
70%
Rapid 2+ goals
34%
Rapid 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
48%
Rapid (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rapid attack 1.38 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
35%
level
28%
Rapid scores more
37%

Rapid at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Politehnica Timisoara 0–0 Rapid

FC Politehnica Timisoara and Rapid drew 0-0 in Liga II on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu in Timişoara.