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Rapid vs Concordia — Liga II 2018

Rapid
Rapid
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Concordia
Concordia
8/10/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 2Stadionul Regie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rapid45%
×Draw27%
Concordia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.40
Concordia
1.03

Rapid creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 89 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.52
Concordia
1.09

allows per match

Rapid
0.97
Concordia
1.27

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
72%
Rapid or Concordia
73%
Draw or Concordia
55%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
22%
Concordia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
75%
Rapid 2+ goals
41%
Rapid 3+ goals
17%
Concordia 1+ goals
64%
Concordia 2+ goals
28%
Concordia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
62%
Concordia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.52 + Concordia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Concordia attack 1.09 + Rapid defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rapid scores more
45%
level
27%
Concordia scores more
28%

Rapid at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid vs Concordia

Rapid beat Concordia 3-1 in Liga II on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Regie in Bucureşti.