Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Concordia vs Rapid — Liga II 2018

Concordia
Concordia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rapid
Rapid
12/7/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 21Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Concordia39%
×Draw27%
Rapid33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia
1.29
Rapid
1.16

Concordia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 29 away

creates per match

Concordia
1.35
Rapid
1.38

allows per match

Concordia
0.94
Rapid
1.24

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Concordia or draw
67%
Concordia or Rapid
73%
Draw or Rapid
61%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+
18%
Rapid wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals
72%
Concordia 2+ goals
37%
Concordia 3+ goals
14%
Rapid 1+ goals
69%
Rapid 2+ goals
32%
Rapid 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)
54%
Rapid (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.35 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rapid attack 1.38 + Concordia defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Concordia scores more
39%
level
27%
Rapid scores more
33%

Concordia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concordia vs Rapid

Rapid beat Concordia 3-1 in Liga II on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Concordia in Chiajna.