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Rapid vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2018

Rapid
Rapid
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
7/20/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 2Superbet Arena - Giulesti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Rapid38%
×Draw27%
CFR 1907 Cluj35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.29
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 154 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.63
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

allows per match

Rapid
1.00
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.95

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
65%
Rapid or CFR 1907 Cluj
73%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
62%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
17%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
72%
Rapid 2+ goals
37%
Rapid 3+ goals
14%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
71%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
35%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
52%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 100 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.63 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + Rapid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rapid scores more
38%
level
27%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
35%

Rapid at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Rapid 1–1 CFR 1907 Cluj

Rapid and CFR 1907 Cluj drew 1-1 in Liga I on July 20, 2025.

The match was played at Superbet Arena - Giulesti in Bucharest.