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Rapid Vienna vs Djurgardens IF — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna
AET
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IFadvanced
J. Une Larsson 45+1' (OG)
T. Gulliksen 105', 93'
K. Kosugi 77'
M. Danielson 42' (pen)
4/17/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsAllianz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rapid Vienna37%
×Draw30%
Djurgardens IF33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid Vienna
1.10
Djurgardens IF
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rapid Vienna
1.14
Djurgardens IF
1.19

allows per match

Rapid Vienna
0.86
Djurgardens IF
1.06

finishing

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Vienna ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rapid Vienna or draw
67%
Rapid Vienna or Djurgardens IF
70%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
63%

Winning margin

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+
15%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals
67%
Rapid Vienna 2+ goals
30%
Rapid Vienna 3+ goals
10%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
64%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
27%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)
53%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Vienna at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Vienna attack 1.14 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Djurgardens IF attack 1.19 + Rapid Vienna defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rapid Vienna scores more
37%
level
30%
Djurgardens IF scores more
33%

Rapid Vienna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rapid Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
T. GulliksenDjurgardens IFDjurgardens IF · M
9.0

Match Events

7'
Mamadou Sangare
7'
Mamadou SangareCard upgrade
9'
R. Amané← E. Kara
9'
S. Haarala← N. Žugelj
22'
A. Priske← O. Fallenius
23'
Tokmac Nguen
34'
Dion Drena Beljo
38'
Marcus Danielson
39'
Santeri HaaralaPenalty confirmed
42'
M. DanielsonPenalty
45+1'
J. Une LarssonOwn goal
54'
Matthias Seidl
67'
I. Jansson← L. Schaub
68'
Daniel Stensson
75'
B. Böckle← D. Beljo
75'
A. Gröller← N. Cvetković
77'
K. Kosugi
83'
M. Tenho← J. Une Larsson
83'
V. Bergh← S. Haarala
83'
I. Alemayehu← H. Finndell
93'
T. Gulliksen↳ T. Nguen
96'
N. Bischof← J. Auer
96'
G. Burgstaller← M. Oswald
99'
A. Atlee Manneh← K. Kosugi
105'
Guido Burgstaller
105'
T. Gulliksen↳ A. Priske
110'
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao

Possession

45%Rapid

Shots

16Rapid

Pass accuracy

47%Rapid

Statistics

RapidDjurgardens
Overview
45%Possession55%
16Total Shots30
1.51Expected Goals (xG)3.77
4Corners5
14Fouls19
Shots
16Total Shots30
5On Target12
5Off Target8
6Blocked10
12Inside Box20
4Outside Box10
Passing
45%Possession55%
515Total Passes637
393Accurate Passes548
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
0.16Goals Prevented0.16
Discipline
14Fouls19
3Yellow Cards3
2Red Cards0
2Offsides2

UEFA Europa Conference League: Rapid Vienna 1–2 Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on April 17, 2025.

Goals: M. Danielson (42' pen), J. Une Larsson (45+1' o.g.), K. Kosugi (77'), T. Gulliksen (93', 105').

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (55%) and registered 30 shots to 16.

The match was played at Allianz Stadion in Wien.