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Djurgardens IF vs Rapid Vienna — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Viennaadvanced
H. Finndell 62' (OG)
4/10/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finals3Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Djurgardens IF46%
×Draw24%
Rapid Vienna30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.73
Rapid Vienna
1.35

Djurgardens IF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
2.00
Rapid Vienna
1.53

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
1.18
Rapid Vienna
1.47

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Rapid Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
70%
Djurgardens IF or Rapid Vienna
76%
Draw or Rapid Vienna
54%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
25%
Rapid Vienna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
82%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
52%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
25%
Rapid Vienna 1+ goals
74%
Rapid Vienna 2+ goals
39%
Rapid Vienna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
61%
Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.00 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rapid Vienna attack 1.53 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
46%
level
24%
Rapid Vienna scores more
30%

Djurgardens IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
A. StåhlDjurgardens IFDjurgardens IF · D
8.2

Match Events

27'
Louis Schaub
43'
Bendegúz Bolla
61'
Hampus Finndell
62'
N. Bischof← R. Amané
62'
M. Seidl← D. Beljo
62'
H. FinndellOwn goal
77'
I. Alemayehu← S. Haarala
78'
T. Børkeeiet← L. Grgić
83'
V. Bergh← T. Gulliksen
85'
A. Radulović← L. Schaub
85'
G. Burgstaller← E. Kara
89'
M. Tenho← N. Žugelj
90'
Andrija Radulović

Possession

60%Djurgardens

Shots

13Djurgardens

Pass accuracy

53%Djurgardens

Statistics

DjurgardensRapid
Overview
60%Possession40%
13Total Shots14
1.33Expected Goals (xG)1.20
8Corners8
10Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target4
7Off Target3
1Blocked7
8Inside Box10
5Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
465Total Passes304
380Accurate Passes224
82%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
1.16Goals Prevented1.16
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Rapid Vienna

Rapid Vienna beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on April 10, 2025.

Goals: H. Finndell (62' o.g.).

Djurgardens IF controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.