Rapid de Murillo vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Rapid de Murillo25%
Casalarreina52%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Casalarreina creates 52% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 91 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rapid de Murillo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches
Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.23
Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.87
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Casalarreina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
UD Logroñés II
Arnedo
Varea
Oyonesa
Calahorra
Anguiano
Haro Deportivo
Agoncillo
Vianés
Yagüe
Berceo
San Marcial
La Calzada
Comillas
Pradejón
Villegas
Autol
Peña BalsamaisoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Rapid de Murillo host Casalarreina on Saturday, 22 January 2022 at 14:45. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019/2020 season.
Rapid de Murillo 2 – 4 Casalarreina
Casalarreina beat Rapid de Murillo 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 22, 2022.
Goals: Eric García (9'), Javier Duce (45+1'), Sergio Terroba (51'), Khalid (75'), Alberto Baztán (83'), Jorge Bernal (90+6').
The match was played at Estadio El Rozo in Murillo de Río Leza.