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Casalarreina vs Rapid de Murillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Casalarreina
Casalarreina
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 1Estadio Municipal El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Casalarreina68%
×Draw17%
Rapid de Murillo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casalarreina
2.64
Rapid de Murillo
1.16

Casalarreina creates 128% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

creates per match

Casalarreina
1.81
Rapid de Murillo
0.73

allows per match

Casalarreina
1.58
Rapid de Murillo
3.47

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par
Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

Rapid de Murillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw
85%
Casalarreina or Rapid de Murillo
83%
Draw or Rapid de Murillo
32%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+
47%
Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals
93%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
74%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
48%
Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
69%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
32%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)
82%
Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

Rapid de Murillo away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + Rapid de Murillo defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.64

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.73 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Casalarreina scores more
68%
level
17%
Rapid de Murillo scores more
15%

Casalarreina at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Casalarreina 5 – 1 Rapid de Murillo

Casalarreina beat Rapid de Murillo 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Soto in Haro.