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Rapid de Murillo vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Berceo
Berceo
3/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 25Estadio El Rozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapid de Murillo26%
×Draw23%
Berceo51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid de Murillo
1.23
Berceo
1.82

Berceo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 111 away

creates per match

Rapid de Murillo
0.87
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Rapid de Murillo
2.40
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid de Murillo ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rapid de Murillo or draw
49%
Rapid de Murillo or Berceo
77%
Draw or Berceo
74%

Winning margin

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
11%
Berceo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
71%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
35%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
13%
Berceo 1+ goals
84%
Berceo 2+ goals
54%
Berceo 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
34%
Berceo (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.23

Berceo attack 1.25 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rapid de Murillo scores more
26%
level
23%
Berceo scores more
51%

Berceo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Rapid de Murillo 1–4 Berceo

Berceo beat Rapid de Murillo 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Rozo in Murillo de Río Leza.