Berceo 0–2 Rapid de Murillo: Result & Stats

Berceo

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rapid de Murillo

11/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 10Estadio La Isla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Berceo65%

×Draw18%

Rapid de Murillo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BerceoExpected goals in this matchRapid de Murillo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.17

Berceo

2.44

Rapid de Murillo

1.17

Berceo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

1.41

creates per match

0.73

1.60

allows per match

3.47

creates per match

Berceo

1.41

Rapid de Murillo

0.73

allows per match

Berceo

1.60

Rapid de Murillo

3.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berceo+0.00on par

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berceo ↓

Rapid de Murillo →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Berceo or draw

83%

Berceo or Rapid de Murillo

82%

Draw or Rapid de Murillo

35%

Winning margin

Berceo wins by 2+

43%

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+

Team goals

Berceo 1+ goals

91%

Berceo 2+ goals

70%

Berceo 3+ goals

43%

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals

69%

Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals

33%

Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Berceo (draw refunded)

79%

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Berceo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

Rapid de Murillo away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Berceo attack 1.41 + Rapid de Murillo defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.44

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.73 + Berceo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Berceo scores more

65%

level

18%

Rapid de Murillo scores more

17%

Berceo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Berceo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff