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Rapid de Murillo vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Arnedo
Arnedo
11/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio El Rozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapid de Murillo19%
×Draw21%
Arnedo60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid de Murillo
1.03
Arnedo
2.01

Arnedo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

creates per match

Rapid de Murillo
0.87
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

Rapid de Murillo
2.40
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid de Murillo ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rapid de Murillo or draw
40%
Rapid de Murillo or Arnedo
79%
Draw or Arnedo
81%

Winning margin

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
7%
Arnedo wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
64%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
28%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
9%
Arnedo 1+ goals
87%
Arnedo 2+ goals
59%
Arnedo 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
24%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rapid de Murillo scores more
19%
level
21%
Arnedo scores more
60%

Arnedo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid de Murillo vs Arnedo

Arnedo beat Rapid de Murillo 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Rozo in Murillo de Río Leza.