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Arnedo vs Rapid de Murillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Arnedo
Arnedo
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arnedo78%
×Draw14%
Rapid de Murillo8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnedo
2.70
Rapid de Murillo
0.77

Arnedo creates 251% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Arnedo
1.92
Rapid de Murillo
0.73

allows per match

Arnedo
0.81
Rapid de Murillo
3.47

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par
Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Rapid de Murillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw
92%
Arnedo or Rapid de Murillo
86%
Draw or Rapid de Murillo
22%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+
56%
Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals
93%
Arnedo 2+ goals
75%
Arnedo 3+ goals
50%
Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
54%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
18%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)
90%
Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Rapid de Murillo away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Rapid de Murillo defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.70

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.73 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Arnedo scores more
78%
level
14%
Rapid de Murillo scores more
8%

Arnedo at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arnedo vs Rapid de Murillo

Arnedo beat Rapid de Murillo 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.