Rangers U19 2–6 Ajax U19: Result & Stats

Rangers U19

FT

2 – 6

HT: 2 – 2

Ajax U19

R. McCausland 38', 30'

Y. Boerhout 90+1'

R. Chahid 72'

C. van Bohemen 62'

K. Ciubotaru 56' (OG)

D. Kalokoh 45+2', 8'

11/1/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Firhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rangers U1933%

×Draw20%

Ajax U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers U19Expected goals in this matchAjax U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.38

Rangers U19

1.98

Ajax U19

2.38

Ajax U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

2.00

creates per match

2.65

2.11

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Rangers U19

2.00

Ajax U19

2.65

allows per match

Rangers U19

2.11

Ajax U19

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers U19+0.00on par

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers U19 ↓

Ajax U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Rangers U19 or draw

53%

Rangers U19 or Ajax U19

80%

Draw or Ajax U19

67%

Winning margin

Rangers U19 wins by 2+

17%

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Rangers U19 1+ goals

86%

Rangers U19 2+ goals

59%

Rangers U19 3+ goals

31%

Ajax U19 1+ goals

91%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

68%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Ajax U19 away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers U19 attack 2.00 + Ajax U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ajax U19 attack 2.65 + Rangers U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rangers U19 scores more

33%

level

20%

Ajax U19 scores more

47%

Ajax U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ajax U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Kalokoh↳ C. van Bohemen

26'

B. Rice

30'

R. McCausland

38'

R. McCausland

45+2'

D. Kalokoh↳ S. Idumbo-Muzambo

46'

Y. Boerhout← N. Chourak

56'

K. CiubotaruOwn goal

60'

N. Bijnoe← J. Hato

60'

N. Viereck← T. Gooijer

61'

K. Ewen

62'

C. van Bohemen↳ N. Viereck

64'

65'

72'

73'

73'

R. Speksnijder← S. Vink

74'

M. Strachan← C. Lindsay

79'

C. Young← R. McCausland

79'

J. Graham← R. Ure

80'

A. Henry← D. Kalokoh

85'

K. Webster← J. Harkness

90+1'

Y. Boerhout↳ R. Sarfo

Rangers

Ajax

1

Reverson

3

▼

Gooijer

4

▼

Hato

8

⚽

Chahid

5

⚽A

Bohemen

10

A

Idumbo-Mu

7

▼

Chourak

6

Gorter

2

A

Sarfo

11

⚽2

▼

Kalokoh

9

A

▼

1

4

5

2

▼

Harkness

3

🥅

Ciubotaru

6

Rice

11

⚽2

▼

McCauslan

10

Lyall

8

▼

Lindsay

9

▼

Ure

7

▼

Lovelace

Manager: D. McCallum

73'▲P. Nsio←▼Z. Lovelace

74'▲M. Strachan←▼C. Lindsay

79'▲C. Young←▼R. McCausland

79'▲J. Graham←▼R. Ure

85'▲K. Webster←▼J. Harkness

Rangers U19 substitutes

15Nsio14Strachan18Young17Graham12Webster16Pasnik21Kane

Manager: F. Peereboom

46'▲Y. Boerhout←▼N. Chourak

60'▲N. Bijnoe←▼J. Hato

60'▲N. Viereck←▼T. Gooijer

73'▲R. Speksnijder←▼S. Vink

80'▲A. Henry←▼D. Kalokoh

Ajax U19 substitutes

19Boerhout20Bijnoe15Viereck17Speksnijder18Henry12Alegoz16Alders

UEFA Youth League: Rangers U19 2–6 Ajax U19

Ajax U19 beat Rangers U19 6-2 in UEFA Youth League on November 1, 2022.

Goals: D. Kalokoh (8', 45+2'), R. McCausland (30', 38'), K. Ciubotaru (56' o.g.), C. van Bohemen (62'), R. Chahid (72'), Y. Boerhout (90+1').

The match was played at Firhill Stadium in Glasgow.

Rangers U19 vs Ajax U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Rangers U19 2–6 Ajax U19