Ajax U19 2–1 Rangers U19: Result & Stats

Ajax U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Rangers U19

S. Idumbo 30'

S. Vink 12'

L. Mackinnon 37'

9/7/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ajax U1948%

×Draw20%

Rangers U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax U19Expected goals in this matchRangers U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.91

Ajax U19

2.37

Rangers U19

1.91

Ajax U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

2.60

creates per match

2.29

1.53

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Ajax U19

2.60

Rangers U19

2.29

allows per match

Ajax U19

1.53

Rangers U19

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Rangers U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax U19 ↓

Rangers U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Ajax U19 or draw

68%

Ajax U19 or Rangers U19

80%

Draw or Rangers U19

52%

Winning margin

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

29%

Rangers U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ajax U19 1+ goals

91%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

68%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

42%

Rangers U19 1+ goals

85%

Rangers U19 2+ goals

57%

Rangers U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Rangers U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax U19 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Rangers U19 away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax U19 attack 2.60 + Rangers U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.37

Rangers U19 attack 2.29 + Ajax U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ajax U19 scores more

48%

level

20%

Rangers U19 scores more

32%

Ajax U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ajax U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Vink↳ C. van Bohemen

28'

C. Van Bohemen

30'

S. Idumbo↳ C. van Bohemen

37'

L. Mackinnon↳ R. Ure

64'

R. Chahid← D. Kalokoh

64'

N. Chourak← J. Kjær

72'

G. Allen← P. Nsio

75'

A. Stevens← M. Strachan

77'

N. Viereck← C. van Bohemen

77'

A. Henry← R. Sarfo

89'

B. Rice← J. Lindsay

89'

J. Graham← R. McCausland

90+5'

O. Agougil

90+1'

M. Hamouchi← S. Vos

Ajax

Rangers

1

Pazikas

5

⚽

2

3

4

6

▼

Strachan

8

▼

Lindsay

10

▼

Nsio

11

▼

McCauslan

9

A

7

1

3

8

4

5

A

▼

Bohemen

10

⚽

Idumbo

6

▼

Vos

2

▼

Sarfo

7

▼

Kjær

11

▼

Kalokoh

9

⚽

Vink

Manager: F. Peereboom

64'▲R. Chahid←▼D. Kalokoh

64'▲N. Chourak←▼J. Kjær

77'▲N. Viereck←▼C. van Bohemen

77'▲A. Henry←▼R. Sarfo

90+1'▲M. Hamouchi←▼S. Vos

Ajax U19 substitutes

19Chahid17Chourak18Viereck15Henry16Hamouchi12Setford20Boerhout

Manager: D. McCallum

72'▲G. Allen←▼P. Nsio

75'▲A. Stevens←▼M. Strachan

89'▲B. Rice←▼J. Lindsay

89'▲J. Graham←▼R. McCausland

Rangers U19 substitutes

12Allen17Stevens15Rice18Graham14Ewen21Munn16Pasnik

UEFA Youth League: Ajax U19 2–1 Rangers U19

Ajax U19 beat Rangers U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on September 7, 2022.

Goals: S. Vink (12'), S. Idumbo (30'), L. Mackinnon (37').

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.

Ajax U19 vs Rangers U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Ajax U19 2–1 Rangers U19