Rangers FC 0–1 Milling Hotspurs: Result & Stats

Rangers FC

FT

0 – 1

Milling Hotspurs

12/28/2021

Premier League · Round 6King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rangers FC39%

×Draw28%

Milling Hotspurs32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers FCExpected goals in this matchMilling Hotspurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.09

Rangers FC

1.23

Milling Hotspurs

1.09

Rangers FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

1.02

creates per match

0.83

1.36

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Rangers FC

1.02

Milling Hotspurs

0.83

allows per match

Rangers FC

1.36

Milling Hotspurs

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers FC+0.00on par

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers FC ↓

Milling Hotspurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rangers FC or draw

68%

Rangers FC or Milling Hotspurs

72%

Draw or Milling Hotspurs

61%

Winning margin

Rangers FC wins by 2+

17%

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rangers FC 1+ goals

71%

Rangers FC 2+ goals

35%

Rangers FC 3+ goals

13%

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals

66%

Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals

30%

Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rangers FC (draw refunded)

55%

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers FC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Milling Hotspurs away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers FC attack 1.02 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Milling Hotspurs attack 0.83 + Rangers FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rangers FC scores more

39%

level

28%

Milling Hotspurs scores more

32%

Rangers FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff