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Milling Hotspurs vs Rangers FC — Premier League 2020

Milling Hotspurs
Milling Hotspurs
FT
2 – 2
Rangers FC
Rangers FC
5/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Milling Hotspurs38%
×Draw27%
Rangers FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milling Hotspurs
1.26
Rangers FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 56 away

creates per match

Milling Hotspurs
1.14
Rangers FC
0.93

allows per match

Milling Hotspurs
1.41
Rangers FC
1.39

finishing

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par
Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milling Hotspurs ↓

Rangers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Milling Hotspurs or draw
66%
Milling Hotspurs or Rangers FC
73%
Draw or Rangers FC
62%

Winning margin

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+
17%
Rangers FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals
72%
Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals
36%
Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals
13%
Rangers FC 1+ goals
69%
Rangers FC 2+ goals
33%
Rangers FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)
53%
Rangers FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milling Hotspurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Rangers FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.39 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milling Hotspurs attack 1.14 + Rangers FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Rangers FC attack 0.93 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Milling Hotspurs scores more
38%
level
27%
Rangers FC scores more
34%

Milling Hotspurs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Milling Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Milling Hotspurs 2–2 Rangers FC

Milling Hotspurs and Rangers FC drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.