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Rangers de Talca vs Deportes Valdivia — Primera B 2018

Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
9/29/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 24Estadio Fiscal de Talca (Talca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rangers de Talca49%
×Draw24%
Deportes Valdivia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers de Talca
1.68
Deportes Valdivia
1.17

Rangers de Talca creates 44% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 36 away

creates per match

Rangers de Talca
1.29
Deportes Valdivia
1.06

allows per match

Rangers de Talca
1.27
Deportes Valdivia
2.06

finishing

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers de Talca ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rangers de Talca or draw
73%
Rangers de Talca or Deportes Valdivia
76%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
51%

Winning margin

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
26%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
81%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
50%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
24%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
69%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
33%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
65%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers de Talca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 124 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers de Talca attack 1.29 + Deportes Valdivia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.06 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rangers de Talca scores more
49%
level
24%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
27%

Rangers de Talca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rangers de Talca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Rangers de Talca 2–0 Deportes Valdivia

Rangers de Talca beat Deportes Valdivia 2-0 in Primera B on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca (Talca).