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Deportes Valdivia vs Rangers de Talca — Primera B 2018

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
CANC
00:00
Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
10/6/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 26Estadio El Parque Municipal (Valdivia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportes Valdivia41%
×Draw26%
Rangers de Talca33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.38
Rangers de Talca
1.22

Deportes Valdivia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 124 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.35
Rangers de Talca
1.11

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.32
Rangers de Talca
1.40

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Rangers de Talca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
67%
Deportes Valdivia or Rangers de Talca
74%
Draw or Rangers de Talca
59%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
19%
Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
40%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
16%
Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
70%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
34%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
55%
Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Rangers de Talca away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.35 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rangers de Talca attack 1.11 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
41%
level
26%
Rangers de Talca scores more
33%

Deportes Valdivia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportes Valdivia vs Rangers de Talca — Match Preview

Deportes Valdivia face Rangers de Talca on October 6, 2018 in this Primera B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportes Valdivia host Rangers de Talca at Estadio El Parque Municipal (Valdivia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.