Rangers de Talca 2–0 Deportes Limache

Rangers de Talca

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportes Limache

7/26/2024

Primera B · Round 18Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rangers de Talca33%

×Draw25%

Deportes Limache42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rangers de TalcaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.52

Rangers de Talca

1.32

Deportes Limache

1.52

Deportes Limache creates 15% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

1.76

1.27

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Rangers de Talca

1.29

Deportes Limache

1.76

allows per match

Rangers de Talca

1.27

Deportes Limache

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers de Talca ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rangers de Talca or draw

58%

Rangers de Talca or Deportes Limache

75%

Draw or Deportes Limache

67%

Winning margin

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+

14%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals

73%

Rangers de Talca 2+ goals

38%

Rangers de Talca 3+ goals

15%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

78%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

45%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)

44%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers de Talca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 124 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers de Talca attack 1.29 + Deportes Limache defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Deportes Limache attack 1.76 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rangers de Talca scores more

33%

level

25%

Deportes Limache scores more

42%

Deportes Limache at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff