Deportes Limache 0–1 Rangers de Talca

Deportes Limache

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rangers de Talca

3/8/2024

Primera B · Round 3Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportes Limache40%

×Draw27%

Rangers de Talca34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchRangers de Talca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.22

Deportes Limache

1.34

Rangers de Talca

1.22

Deportes Limache creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 124 away

1.28

creates per match

1.11

1.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Deportes Limache

1.28

Rangers de Talca

1.11

allows per match

Deportes Limache

1.33

Rangers de Talca

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Rangers de Talca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

66%

Deportes Limache or Rangers de Talca

73%

Draw or Rangers de Talca

60%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

18%

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

74%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

39%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

15%

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals

70%

Rangers de Talca 2+ goals

34%

Rangers de Talca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

54%

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Rangers de Talca away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.28 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rangers de Talca attack 1.11 + Deportes Limache defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

40%

level

27%

Rangers de Talca scores more

34%

Deportes Limache at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff