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Rangers de Talca vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
FT
3 – 0
Barnechea
Barnechea
8/1/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 19Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Rangers de Talca42%
×Draw26%
Barnechea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rangers de Talca
1.41
Barnechea
1.18

Rangers de Talca creates 19% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 95 away

creates per match

Rangers de Talca
1.29
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Rangers de Talca
1.27
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Rangers de Talca+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rangers de Talca ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rangers de Talca or draw
69%
Rangers de Talca or Barnechea
74%
Draw or Barnechea
58%

Winning margin

Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
20%
Barnechea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
76%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
41%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
17%
Barnechea 1+ goals
69%
Barnechea 2+ goals
33%
Barnechea 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
57%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rangers de Talca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 124 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rangers de Talca attack 1.29 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rangers de Talca scores more
42%
level
26%
Barnechea scores more
31%

Rangers de Talca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rangers de Talca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rangers de Talca vs Barnechea

Rangers de Talca beat Barnechea 3-0 in Primera B on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.