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Barnechea vs Rangers de Talca — Primera B 2018

Barnechea
Barnechea
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
3/18/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 4Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Barnechea44%
×Draw26%
Rangers de Talca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnechea
1.45
Rangers de Talca
1.16

Barnechea creates 25% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 124 away

creates per match

Barnechea
1.50
Rangers de Talca
1.11

allows per match

Barnechea
1.21
Rangers de Talca
1.40

finishing

Barnechea+0.00on par
Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnechea ↓

Rangers de Talca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barnechea or draw
70%
Barnechea or Rangers de Talca
74%
Draw or Rangers de Talca
56%

Winning margin

Barnechea wins by 2+
21%
Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barnechea 1+ goals
77%
Barnechea 2+ goals
42%
Barnechea 3+ goals
18%
Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
69%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
32%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barnechea (draw refunded)
59%
Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnechea at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Rangers de Talca away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnechea attack 1.50 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rangers de Talca attack 1.11 + Barnechea defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barnechea scores more
44%
level
26%
Rangers de Talca scores more
30%

Barnechea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barnechea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnechea vs Rangers de Talca

Barnechea beat Rangers de Talca 2-1 in Primera B on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.