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Ranger's vs Penya Encarnada — 1a Divisió 2019

Ranger's
Ranger's
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada
3/1/20251a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 19Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ranger's65%
×Draw19%
Penya Encarnada16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranger's
2.22
Penya Encarnada
0.99

Ranger's creates 124% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 62 away

creates per match

Ranger's
2.25
Penya Encarnada
0.98

allows per match

Ranger's
1.00
Penya Encarnada
2.19

finishing

Ranger's+0.00on par
Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranger's ↓

Penya Encarnada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ranger's or draw
84%
Ranger's or Penya Encarnada
81%
Draw or Penya Encarnada
35%

Winning margin

Ranger's wins by 2+
42%
Penya Encarnada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ranger's 1+ goals
89%
Ranger's 2+ goals
65%
Ranger's 3+ goals
38%
Penya Encarnada 1+ goals
63%
Penya Encarnada 2+ goals
26%
Penya Encarnada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ranger's (draw refunded)
81%
Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranger's at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Penya Encarnada away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranger's attack 2.25 + Penya Encarnada defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.22

Penya Encarnada attack 0.98 + Ranger's defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ranger's scores more
65%
level
19%
Penya Encarnada scores more
16%

Ranger's at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ranger's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ranger's 6 – 2 Penya Encarnada

Ranger's beat Penya Encarnada 6-2 in 1a Divisió on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.