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Penya Encarnada vs Ranger's — 1a Divisió 2019

Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ranger's
Ranger's
5/10/20261a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Penya Encarnada20%
×Draw24%
Ranger's56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penya Encarnada
0.89
Ranger's
1.70

Ranger's creates 91% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 29 away

creates per match

Penya Encarnada
1.11
Ranger's
1.79

allows per match

Penya Encarnada
1.61
Ranger's
0.66

finishing

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par
Ranger's+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penya Encarnada ↓

Ranger's →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Penya Encarnada or draw
44%
Penya Encarnada or Ranger's
76%
Draw or Ranger's
80%

Winning margin

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+
6%
Ranger's wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals
59%
Penya Encarnada 2+ goals
22%
Penya Encarnada 3+ goals
6%
Ranger's 1+ goals
82%
Ranger's 2+ goals
51%
Ranger's 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)
26%
Ranger's (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penya Encarnada at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.61 · 64 matches

Ranger's away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penya Encarnada attack 1.11 + Ranger's defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.89

Ranger's attack 1.79 + Penya Encarnada defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Penya Encarnada scores more
20%
level
24%
Ranger's scores more
56%

Ranger's at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ranger's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Penya Encarnada vs Ranger's

Ranger's beat Penya Encarnada 2-1 in 1a Divisió on May 10, 2026.