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Ranger's vs Carroi — Copa Constitució 2019

Ranger's
Ranger's
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Carroi
Carroi
1/12/2025Copa ConstitucióCopa Constitució · 1st RoundCentre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ranger's28%
×Draw26%
Carroi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranger's
1.10
Carroi
1.50

Carroi creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ranger's
0.20
Carroi
0.40

allows per match

Ranger's
2.60
Carroi
2.00

finishing

Ranger's+0.00on par
Carroi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranger's ↓

Carroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ranger's or draw
54%
Ranger's or Carroi
74%
Draw or Carroi
72%

Winning margin

Ranger's wins by 2+
11%
Carroi wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ranger's 1+ goals
67%
Ranger's 2+ goals
30%
Ranger's 3+ goals
10%
Carroi 1+ goals
78%
Carroi 2+ goals
44%
Carroi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ranger's (draw refunded)
37%
Carroi (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranger's at home — creates 0.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Carroi away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranger's attack 0.20 + Carroi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Carroi attack 0.40 + Ranger's defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ranger's scores more
28%
level
26%
Carroi scores more
46%

Carroi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Carroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Constitució: Ranger's 1–0 Carroi

Ranger's beat Carroi 1-0 in Copa Constitució on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.