Carroi 1–2 Ranger's: Result & Stats | 1a Divisió

Carroi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ranger's

K. Dagnet 45'

B. A. Munoz Magdaleno 90'

A. Cistero 48'

4/19/2026

1a Divisió · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Carroi12%

×Draw20%

Ranger's68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarroiExpected goals in this matchRanger's

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

2.00

Carroi

0.69

Ranger's

2.00

Ranger's creates 190% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 29 away

0.71

creates per match

1.79

2.22

allows per match

0.66

creates per match

Carroi

0.71

Ranger's

1.79

allows per match

Carroi

2.22

Ranger's

0.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carroi+0.00on par

Ranger's+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carroi ↓

Ranger's →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–114%

0–214%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Carroi or draw

32%

Carroi or Ranger's

80%

Draw or Ranger's

88%

Winning margin

Carroi wins by 2+

3%

Ranger's wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Carroi 1+ goals

50%

Carroi 2+ goals

15%

Carroi 3+ goals

3%

Ranger's 1+ goals

86%

Ranger's 2+ goals

59%

Ranger's 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Carroi (draw refunded)

15%

Ranger's (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carroi at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.22 · 63 matches

Ranger's away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carroi attack 0.71 + Ranger's defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.69

Ranger's attack 1.79 + Carroi defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Carroi scores more

12%

level

20%

Ranger's scores more

68%

Ranger's at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ranger's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

36'

43'

45'

46'

L. Prieto← J. Miranda

48'

A. Cistero

57'

B. Morales← M. J. Zamora Carreno

59'

J. H. Ghaud

63'

K. Otto

64'

B. Diarra← K. Nath

64'

Q. Laffont← A. Baaloul

78'

J. Leighton← D. Andrade

79'

B. Diarra

79'

N. Lopez← N. Meireles

80'

B. A. Munoz Magdaleno

86'

F. Omar← K. Otto

87'

M. Grimm

90+8'

G. Mazzarino

90'

B. A. Munoz Magdaleno

Carroi

Ranger's

1

2

3

7

11

▼

Andrade

15

▼

Carreno

16

▼

Miranda

18

⚽

Magdaleno

19

Segura

20

⚽

25

30

2

4

7

▼

Baaloul

19

▼

21

22

23

28

▼

Otto

46

▼

Nath

64

⚽

Dagnet

64'▲B. Diarra←▼K. Nath

64'▲Q. Laffont←▼A. Baaloul

79'▲N. Lopez←▼N. Meireles

86'▲F. Omar←▼K. Otto

Carroi substitutes

31Scopazzo5Rodriguez9Omar11Lopez17Diarra25Laffont94Santillan

46'▲L. Prieto←▼J. Miranda

57'▲B. Morales←▼M. J. Zamora Carreno

78'▲J. Leighton←▼D. Andrade

Ranger's substitutes

13Acevedo4Rebes5Deverlan6Estrada8Prieto12Tame14Dominguez17Leighton22Morales