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Randers FC vs Hobro — Superliga 2018

Randers FC
Randers FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hobro
Hobro
6/1/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 25Cepheus Park Randers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Randers FC47%
×Draw25%
Hobro28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randers FC
1.59
Hobro
1.17

Randers FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 33 away

creates per match

Randers FC
1.40
Hobro
1.03

allows per match

Randers FC
1.31
Hobro
1.79

finishing

Randers FC+0.00on par
Hobro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

Hobro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw
72%
Randers FC or Hobro
75%
Draw or Hobro
53%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+
24%
Hobro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals
80%
Randers FC 2+ goals
47%
Randers FC 3+ goals
21%
Hobro 1+ goals
69%
Hobro 2+ goals
33%
Hobro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)
63%
Hobro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.31 · 132 matches

Hobro away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.40 + Hobro defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hobro attack 1.03 + Randers FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Randers FC scores more
47%
level
25%
Hobro scores more
28%

Randers FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Randers FC 0–1 Hobro

Hobro beat Randers FC 1-0 in Superliga on June 1, 2020.

The match was played at Cepheus Park Randers in Randers.