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Hobro vs Randers FC — Superliga 2018

Hobro
Hobro
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Randers FC
Randers FC
7/5/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Relegation Round - 5DS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hobro36%
×Draw26%
Randers FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hobro
1.29
Randers FC
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 133 away

creates per match

Hobro
1.06
Randers FC
1.24

allows per match

Hobro
1.45
Randers FC
1.52

finishing

Hobro+0.00on par
Randers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobro ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hobro or draw
62%
Hobro or Randers FC
74%
Draw or Randers FC
64%

Winning margin

Hobro wins by 2+
16%
Randers FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hobro 1+ goals
72%
Hobro 2+ goals
37%
Hobro 3+ goals
14%
Randers FC 1+ goals
74%
Randers FC 2+ goals
39%
Randers FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hobro (draw refunded)
48%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobro attack 1.06 + Randers FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Randers FC attack 1.24 + Hobro defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hobro scores more
36%
level
26%
Randers FC scores more
38%

Randers FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Hobro 2–3 Randers FC

Randers FC beat Hobro 3-2 in Superliga on July 5, 2020.

The match was played at DS Arena in Hobro.