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Randers FC vs FC Midtjylland — Superliga 2018

Randers FC
Randers FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
11/9/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 15Cepheus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Randers FC33%
×Draw23%
FC Midtjylland44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Randers FC
1.44
FC Midtjylland
1.71

FC Midtjylland creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Randers FC
1.22
FC Midtjylland
1.99

allows per match

Randers FC
1.43
FC Midtjylland
1.66

finishing

Randers FC-0.11scores less
FC Midtjylland+0.81scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

FC Midtjylland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw
56%
Randers FC or FC Midtjylland
77%
Draw or FC Midtjylland
67%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+
15%
FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals
76%
Randers FC 2+ goals
42%
Randers FC 3+ goals
18%
FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
82%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
51%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)
42%
FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.43 · 9 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.66 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.22 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Midtjylland attack 1.99 + Randers FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Randers FC scores more
33%
level
23%
FC Midtjylland scores more
44%

FC Midtjylland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Randers FC vs FC Midtjylland

FC Midtjylland beat Randers FC 2-0 in Superliga on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Cepheus Park in Randers.