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FC Midtjylland vs Randers FC — Superliga 2018

FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Randers FC
Randers FC
9/29/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 10MCH Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Midtjylland43%
×Draw24%
Randers FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Midtjylland
1.67
Randers FC
1.45

FC Midtjylland creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Midtjylland
1.82
Randers FC
1.62

allows per match

FC Midtjylland
1.28
Randers FC
1.51

finishing

FC Midtjylland+0.38scores more
Randers FC-0.95scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Midtjylland ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Midtjylland or draw
67%
FC Midtjylland or Randers FC
76%
Draw or Randers FC
57%

Winning margin

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+
22%
Randers FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals
81%
FC Midtjylland 2+ goals
50%
FC Midtjylland 3+ goals
23%
Randers FC 1+ goals
77%
Randers FC 2+ goals
42%
Randers FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)
56%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Midtjylland at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Midtjylland attack 1.82 + Randers FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Randers FC attack 1.62 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Midtjylland scores more
43%
level
24%
Randers FC scores more
33%

FC Midtjylland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Midtjylland vs Randers FC

FC Midtjylland beat Randers FC 2-1 in Superliga on September 29, 2025.

The match was played at MCH Arena in Herning.