Randers FC 2–2 FC Fredericia: Result & Stats

Randers FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FC Fredericia

C. Edudzi 46'

J. Bjorkengren 29'

M. Sjolstad 34' (OG)

S. Johannesen 5'

4/23/2026

Superliga · Relegation Group - 28Cepheus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Randers FC49%

×Draw23%

FC Fredericia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Randers FCExpected goals in this matchFC Fredericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.27

Randers FC

1.77

FC Fredericia

1.27

Randers FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.22

1.31

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Randers FC

1.50

FC Fredericia

1.22

allows per match

Randers FC

1.31

FC Fredericia

2.05

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.61scores more than expected

finishing

Randers FC-0.17scores less

FC Fredericia+0.61scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

FC Fredericia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw

72%

Randers FC or FC Fredericia

77%

Draw or FC Fredericia

51%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+

27%

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals

83%

Randers FC 2+ goals

53%

Randers FC 3+ goals

26%

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

72%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

36%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)

64%

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.31 · 18 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.05 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.50 + FC Fredericia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC Fredericia attack 1.22 + Randers FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Randers FC scores more

49%

level

23%

FC Fredericia scores more

28%

Randers FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Mahmoud

Randers FC · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

S. Johannesen

29'

J. Bjorkengren

34'

M. SjolstadOwn goal

40'

46'

46'

46'

57'

62'

E. Simonsen← S. Johannesen

62'

J. Kudsk← S. Crone

62'

P. Egelund← J. Lindekilde

66'

Jeppe Kudsk

70'

F. Lauenborg← M. Greve

70'

N. Dyhr← M. Sjolstad

78'

M. Toure← C. Edudzi

82'

E. Dall← D. F. Kristjansson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RandersFC

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots7

1.45Expected Goals (xG)0.77

6Corners8

9Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target2

7Off Target3

0Blocked2

9Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

508Total Passes440

436Accurate Passes349

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-1.17Goals Prevented-1.17

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2