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FC Fredericia vs Randers FC — Superliga 2018

FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Randers FC
Randers FC
8/24/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 6Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Fredericia32%
×Draw24%
Randers FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fredericia
1.39
Randers FC
1.65

Randers FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 133 away

creates per match

FC Fredericia
1.25
Randers FC
1.24

allows per match

FC Fredericia
2.06
Randers FC
1.52

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par
Randers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw
56%
FC Fredericia or Randers FC
76%
Draw or Randers FC
68%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+
15%
Randers FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals
75%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
40%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
16%
Randers FC 1+ goals
81%
Randers FC 2+ goals
49%
Randers FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
43%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.25 + Randers FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Randers FC attack 1.24 + FC Fredericia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Fredericia scores more
32%
level
24%
Randers FC scores more
44%

Randers FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Randers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Fredericia vs Randers FC

FC Fredericia beat Randers FC 1-0 in Superliga on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Monjasa Park in Fredericia.