Randers FC 1–2 Aarhus: Result & Stats | Superliga

Randers FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Aarhus

D. Hoegh 43'

T. Bech 20', 14'

12/7/2025

Superliga · Round 18Cepheus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Randers FC35%

×Draw25%

Aarhus40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Randers FCExpected goals in this matchAarhus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.46

Randers FC

1.36

Aarhus

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

1.63

1.28

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Randers FC

1.50

Aarhus

1.63

allows per match

Randers FC

1.28

Aarhus

1.23

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Randers FC-0.18scores less

Aarhus+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Randers FC ↓

Aarhus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Randers FC or draw

60%

Randers FC or Aarhus

75%

Draw or Aarhus

65%

Winning margin

Randers FC wins by 2+

16%

Aarhus wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Randers FC 1+ goals

74%

Randers FC 2+ goals

39%

Randers FC 3+ goals

16%

Aarhus 1+ goals

77%

Aarhus 2+ goals

43%

Aarhus 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Randers FC (draw refunded)

47%

Aarhus (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Randers FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 22 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.23 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Randers FC attack 1.50 + Aarhus defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Aarhus attack 1.63 + Randers FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Randers FC scores more

35%

level

25%

Aarhus scores more

40%

Aarhus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

T. Bech

Aarhus · F

9.3

Match Events

14'

20'

35'

37'

43'

46'

A. Romer← L. Pedersen

56'

M. Toure← M. Toure

56'

E. Mahmoud← O. Seck

64'

S. Jorgensen← N. Poulsen

75'

O. Haugstrup← M. Solbakken

76'

John Björkengren

76'

M. Themsen← N. Campbell

76'

S. Tchamche← T. Bech

76'

J. Jensen-Abbew← E. Kahl

85'

F. Lauenborg← M. Greve

89'

J. Serra← P. Mortensen

90+4'

Rasmus Carstensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RandersAarhus

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots12

1.96Expected Goals (xG)0.88

3Corners4

17Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots12

4On Target5

8Off Target4

3Blocked3

12Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

469Total Passes477

391Accurate Passes407

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2