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Aarhus vs Randers FC — Superliga 2018

Aarhus
Aarhus
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Randers FC
Randers FC
P. Mortensen 28'
N. Campbell 64'
S. Odey 47'
W. Dammers 24'
5/11/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Championship Round - 8Ceres Park Vejlby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Aarhus49%
×Draw23%
Randers FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus
1.79
Randers FC
1.29

Aarhus creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aarhus
2.14
Randers FC
1.43

allows per match

Aarhus
1.15
Randers FC
1.43

finishing

Aarhus-0.14scores less
Randers FC-0.38scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

Randers FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw
72%
Aarhus or Randers FC
77%
Draw or Randers FC
51%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+
27%
Randers FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals
83%
Aarhus 2+ goals
53%
Aarhus 3+ goals
26%
Randers FC 1+ goals
72%
Randers FC 2+ goals
37%
Randers FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)
64%
Randers FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

Randers FC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 2.14 + Randers FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Randers FC attack 1.43 + Aarhus defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aarhus scores more
49%
level
23%
Randers FC scores more
28%

Aarhus at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
P. IzzoRanders FCRanders FC · G
8.6

Match Events

24'
W. Dammers↳ S. Nordli
28'
P. Mortensen↳ M. Anderson
47'
S. Odey↳ M. Greve
61'
N. Dyhr← S. Hansen
62'
A. Rømer← S. Nordli
62'
M. Themsen← L. Pedersen
64'
N. Campbell↳ S. Odey
66'
F. Emmery← T. Bach
70'
E. Mahmoud← S. Odey
77'
F. Brandhof← J. Jensen-Abbew
77'
M. Duelund← M. Madsen
84'
Noah Shamoun← N. Campbell

Possession

47%Aarhus

Shots

17Aarhus

Pass accuracy

51%Aarhus

Statistics

AarhusRanders
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots8
2.49Expected Goals (xG)1.45
4Corners5
11Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots8
9On Target3
6Off Target1
2Blocked4
12Inside Box7
5Outside Box1
Passing
47%Possession53%
394Total Passes441
328Accurate Passes353
83%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
11Fouls13

Match Recap: Aarhus vs Randers FC

Randers FC beat Aarhus 3-1 in Superliga on May 11, 2025.

Goals: W. Dammers (24'), P. Mortensen (28'), S. Odey (47'), N. Campbell (64').

Randers FC controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Ceres Park Vejlby in Risskov.