Rancho Santana 1–1 H&H Export: Result & Stats

Rancho Santana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

H&H Export

A. Velásquez 69'

C. Herrera 36'

4/30/2025

Primera Division · Clausura - 18Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Rancho Santana34%

×Draw23%

H&H Export42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rancho SantanaExpected goals in this matchH&H Export

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.69

Rancho Santana

1.51

H&H Export

1.69

H&H Export creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 97 away

1.16

creates per match

1.07

2.30

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Rancho Santana

1.16

H&H Export

1.07

allows per match

Rancho Santana

2.30

H&H Export

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rancho Santana+0.00on par

H&H Export+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rancho Santana ↓

H&H Export →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rancho Santana or draw

58%

Rancho Santana or H&H Export

77%

Draw or H&H Export

66%

Winning margin

Rancho Santana wins by 2+

16%

H&H Export wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rancho Santana 1+ goals

78%

Rancho Santana 2+ goals

44%

Rancho Santana 3+ goals

19%

H&H Export 1+ goals

82%

H&H Export 2+ goals

50%

H&H Export 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Rancho Santana (draw refunded)

45%

H&H Export (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rancho Santana at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.30 · 37 matches

H&H Export away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rancho Santana attack 1.16 + H&H Export defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.51

H&H Export attack 1.07 + Rancho Santana defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rancho Santana scores more

34%

level

23%

H&H Export scores more

42%

H&H Export at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "H&H Export will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

C. Herrera

46'

J. García← A. Barbosa

46'

W. Leman← Y. Chávez

46'

E. Balladares← B. Corea

60'

D. Corrales← E. Mejía

60'

L. Canitano← W. Palacios

69'

O. Salinas← U. Pozo

69'

A. Velásquez

77'

M. Romero← B. López

89'

M. Tercero← E. Hurtado

Rancho

H&H

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Orellana

46'▲J. García←▼A. Barbosa

46'▲W. Leman←▼Y. Chávez

89'▲M. Tercero←▼E. Hurtado

Rancho Santana substitutes

GarcíaLemanTerceroArciaCabezasGarcíaBustos

Manager: S. Rodríguez

46'▲E. Balladares←▼B. Corea

60'▲D. Corrales←▼E. Mejía

60'▲L. Canitano←▼W. Palacios

69'▲O. Salinas←▼U. Pozo

77'▲M. Romero←▼B. López

H&H Export substitutes

BalladaresCorralesCanitanoSalinasRomeroCornejoGómezKirklan